WiMAX in India

[Alan J Weissberger]

Business Week called it "A WiMAX Breathrough in India."

On Mar. 4, India's Tata Communications , an emerging broadband wireless service provider, announced the countrywide rollout of a commercial WiMax network in India, the largest anywhere in the world of the high-speed, wireless broadband technology.

Already 10 Indian cities and 5,000 retail and business customers use the product, and by next year Tata will offer service in 115 cities nationwide. The folks at Tata can hardly contain their excitement. "WiMax is not experimental, it's oven-hot," says Tata's Prateek Pashine, in charge of the company's broadband and retail business.

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/mar2008/gb20080312_47...

But will this really be one of the world's largest WiMAX networks in the world?

Last Friday, March 21st we heard directly from the Indian IT minister that only 10M WiMAX subscribers were expected by 2011. That was quite disappointing for a country that has over 1 B residents! So there is obviously a huge disconnect from what is reported in the business/ trade press and what the Indian government knows.

This seems like more hype for the already way over hyped WiMAX market potential.

[Gere]

10M WiMAX subs might be suitable since there is limitiation of WiMAX CPE and its high price compared to ADSL or other rival tecnologies.

[Alan J Weissberger]

I find it interesting that Reliance Communications Group of India choses to expand its WiMAX deployments outside of its home country. They have set up WiMax networks in 18 cities in India, where Tata Communications and state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam are the other major players.

Now they are planning to set up WiMax networks across 50 countries in the next three years to move into the global telecommunication market. It indicates to me that they believe there is greater WiMAX potential outside of India. Or perhaps, that they would face too much competition in their native land.

http://www.businessstandard.com/search/storypage_new.php?leftnm=8&a...

[Alan J Weissberger]

Comments from my Indian colleagues who now live in the U.S.

From Manish Gupta of Aperto Networks (leading WiMAX equipment vendor selling to emerging countries):

"Bangalore and Delhi have certain places live on WiMAX network - w/ Tata. Reliance has some places in Mumbai and Bangalore. That's it for WiMAX compliant network / devices. Rest is proprietary."

Basant Khaitan (colleague and friend for 35 years):

"In India , the industry is a few steps ahead of the reality and the government is a few steps behind! It sort of reminds me of the GOGO days in the US telecom industry 10 years ago!"

Bipin Shah (who also attended the India IT Minister's talk last Friday):

"From what I know, there is lot of hype in Tata's announcement. Until recently there was an issue of the WiMax band release in India because of some overlap with satelite communications. Knowing this, I know that 10 cities as claimed by Tata's are not on any WiMax network. There has been talk about that for Bangalore , Chennai, Ahmedabad etc but to the best of my knowledge no place has any such installtion.

So, in this case, believe the govt for now. Next year, could be a different story."

[Amitabh Kumar]

Firstly, we need to put the numbers in perspective.The WiMAX forum has estimated that there will be over 133 million WiMAX users by 2012, a majority of which will consist of users of mobile WiMAX with portable devices.If one is to draw a parallel with the mobile networks, it is a good bet that a large number of users will come from BRIC countries. ( In particular Brazil, India and China). The number of mobile phone users in India at over 250 million has exceeded those of US and is at the second place in the world, the first being China. Hence the estimates of numbers are probably not based on any realistic data. Secondly,we need to understand what comanies are planning to invest.Tata Communications, one of the largest telecommunications companies in India has announced its intention to invest $500 million in WiMAX technologies. Other players are Bharti Airtel, Sify, Aircel and BSNL which will collectively invest over $2 Billion.
See http://www.wimax-home.com

[Amitabh Kumar]

There have been always disconnects when predicting the numbers and India is no exception. Even the gartner report on the projected WiMAX subscribers has pitched the number of users very low ( at least in my estimation).
See Gartner report Predicts 6.9 Million WiMAX users in India by 2011 !( http://wimaxbook.net/forum.aspx)

However this is because the planners do not fully visualize what the new technology can do and they are not sure what will make it click and work. The planners considered GSM to be an elite technology and barred the PSUs from entring it for the same reason. However, today it is the biggest provider of so called " rural connectivity" . Today $40 Billion lies in the USO fund of the govt and yet WiMAX is not seen as one of the technologies eligible for the same.

[Amitabh Kumar]

Reliance communications has always been known to enter into a domineering position in any business. Getting into the WiMAX ecosystem in multiple countries helps it get deals for networks and devices which would otherwise be impossible.

In India, the scene for mobile WiMAX is still like a foggy morning. The spectrum which will be allocated is speculative, and the terms on which it will be given out even more so. In this context it makes perfect sense to look outside.

This is also what is happening in the mobile field as well and is no reflection of limited potential in India.

[Alan J Weissberger]

So what's the point? Is the Indian bureaucracy holding back deployment of new telecom technologies? Are decisions made at the state or national level?

The big news in India telecom these days is whether Reliance Group will make some sort of reciprocal investment in S Africa's MTN, after the latter rejected Bharti's bid. Do you think that Reliance Group is keen on deploying WiMax in India?

[Alan J Weissberger]

The impact of the Reliance -MTN deal on WiMAX and 3G/4G rollouts in India is now being questioned.

Today's FT states: some industry observers are not convinced of the merits of a merger between Reliance and MTN. They said a deal could distract Reliance from plans to upgrade its mobile network in India, the world’s second fastest growing wireless market.

Reliance could offer MTN right connection
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f05a34d6-2dac-11dd-b92a-000077b07658.html

[Amitabh Kumar]

The problem is that in India the 3G or WiMAX spectrum is yet to be auctioned. Evan as late as 1 June 2008, the issue was refered to the group of ministers ( yet again) regarding what should be the Policy for such auctions. Unfortunately such actions do not permit companies in India to achieve economies of scale. Hence they need to build outside as well.

[Alan J Weissberger]

New ARTICLE: Indian Telecom Players Gear Up for Massive WiMAX Deployment

http://www.maravedis-bwa.com/article-78.html


Title appears to be a bit misleading as the article indicates the regulators/ bureaucrats have delayed WiMAX and 3G deployments. It states: "There is a lot of uncertainity in India with regard to what will be the maximum amount of spectrum allocated under each frequency band"

Bottom line: all the "huge plans for WiMAX deployment" might be for nothing if the bureaucrats don't move faster! When I heard the India IT Minister talk in Milpitas, there was no sense of urgency. In fact, he preferred talking about his family then IT status in India!

[Alan J Weissberger]

To Jack Terry: For your detailed WiMAX implementation in India questions, please contact:
[e-mail]

Almost 2 years ago, I published an article titled: Will the Real Mobile WiMax please stand UP?

The gist was that there was very little true mobile WiMAX to be deployed in the forseeable future.
http://www.viodi.com/newsletter/061000/article2.pdf

Don't think there's been any significant change since then!

[Alan J Weissberger]

More disputes threaten to delay India's WiMAX goldrush July 15, 2008 10:43 AM by Caroline Gabriel, Weekly Features Contributing Editor

India is absolutely critical to the fortunes of WiMAX, and the level of uptake in the huge nation will help decide how prominent a position 802.16e takes in the overall wireless landscape in the next decade. There are many reasons for WiMAX supporters to be hopeful, but every time it appears that the technology may a major green light this year, the political disputes with which the Indian telecoms market is plagued throw another roadblock in the way. So last week, regulator TRAI clashed once again with the Department of Telecom (DoT), threatening the plan to auction mobile broadband licenses in 2.3-2.7GHz this year alongside 3G rights - a dual-layer plan that could help underpin a wireless revolution for India, with operators able to roll out 3G and 4G services according to need, and with WiMAX likely to play a major role.


http://www.wimaxtrends.com/2008/07/more-disputes-threaten-to-dela.html