Will 3G networks crack under the load of smart phones and netbooks?

[Alan J Weissberger]

3G Networks at the Breaking Point- and it can only get worse!

http://viodi.com/2009/09/14/3g-networks-at-the-breaking-point-and-i...

Opinion: This seems to be a race to oblivion. As more and more smart phones and netbooks are deployed on 3G networks, the performance will degrade to the point of cracking. Where will this leave the 3G operators? It will take them many years to deploy mobile LTE throughout their coverage areas. Will mobile computing then go into a hibernation state?

Is it remotely possible that 3G operators will shift to mobile WiMAX because it would solve their network capacity problems while LTE is still waiting in the wings?

[Jose Puthenkulam]

The way I see that happening, is by 3G operators acquiring Mobile WiMAX operators or partnering with them as MVNOs or even doing JVs.

Also in the near term most 3G operators will continue on the HSPA and HSPA+ technologies. Not because they know its better technology or because it really solves the mobile broadband internet problem. But purely because, they want to avoid lowering the prices for connectivity and are able to do that by staying on the HSPA technology path and also they do not want to spend to built brand new networks which LTE or WiMAX will require.

So the reality is that users of Mobile WiMAX will keep growing till it hits around 50-100 million mark by efforts of alternate operators or operators who are more open about technology choices. So over the next 5 years and somewhere along that line, these 3G Mobile operators will decide to "really" do LTE or adopt WiMAX (through partnering/M&As) depending on the business model that they want to go after. (VZW, DoCoMo etc are possible exceptions here)

Also the following news article shows Operators going backward also like going EDGE evolution in China. Also there are rumours that iPhone is going 2G in China instead of 3G. This will allow China Mobile and China Unicom to offer the 2G iPhone. http://news.softpedia.com/news/Nokia-Siemens-Networks-Announces-Suc...

So as far as 3G operators were concerned, their intent of 4G and LTE was pretty much to kill WiMAX and never deliver on it till 2014+. Just imagine, they control a $500B voice market. They have to protect it. Going 4G all out will not help them protect it. Because in 4G networks prices of Voice calls will be much less than that of what it is on the 2G/3G networks.

So netbooks and smart phones will overload their networks, but they will still continue on the slow upgrade path till they really are pushed to the limit to do anything different.

(These opinions are my own and not those of my employer)

[Alan J Weissberger]

Thanks Jose,

I competely agree with what you wrote!

How about others do you agree also?

[Amanda Louie]

4G World: AT&T says HSPA+ is off the table for now
http://telephonyonline.com/3g4g/news/Rinne-4gworld-keynote-091509/

Jose Puthenkulam said:

The way I see that happening, is by 3G operators acquiring Mobile WiMAX operators or partnering with them as MVNOs or even doing JVs.

Also in the near term most 3G operators will continue on the HSPA and HSPA+ technologies. Not because they know its better technology or because it really solves the mobile broadband internet problem. But purely because, they want to avoid lowering the prices for connectivity and are able to do that by staying on the HSPA technology path and also they do not want to spend to built brand new networks which LTE or WiMAX will require.

So the reality is that users of Mobile WiMAX will keep growing till it hits around 50-100 million mark by efforts of alternate operators or operators who are more open about technology choices. So over the next 5 years and somewhere along that line, these 3G Mobile operators will decide to "really" do LTE or adopt WiMAX (through partnering/M&As) depending on the business model that they want to go after. (VZW, DoCoMo etc are possible exceptions here)

Also the following news article shows Operators going backward also like going EDGE evolution in China. Also there are rumours that iPhone is going 2G in China instead of 3G. This will allow China Mobile and China Unicom to offer the 2G iPhone. http://news.softpedia.com/news/Nokia-Siemens-Networks-Announces-Suc...

So as far as 3G operators were concerned, their intent of 4G and LTE was pretty much to kill WiMAX and never deliver on it till 2014+. Just imagine, they control a $500B voice market. They have to protect it. Going 4G all out will not help them protect it. Because in 4G networks prices of Voice calls will be much less than that of what it is on the 2G/3G networks.

So netbooks and smart phones will overload their networks, but they will still continue on the slow upgrade path till they really are pushed to the limit to do anything different.

(These opinions are my own and not those of my employer)

[Alan J Weissberger]

Someone beat me to the punch with this article, published Jun 9, 2008!!!

Will AT&T’s 3G Network Crack Under the Weight of the iPhone?

http://www.iphonefreak.com/2008/06/will-atts-3g-network-crack-under...

He was spot on target! Bulls eye forecasting!

[Alan J Weissberger]

NY Times: WiFi being used more and more as 3G networks get congested


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/24/technology/personaltech/24smart.h...