How will wireless network operators cope with the coming bandwidth bottlenecks of the 'Zettabyte Era?'

[Alan J Weissberger]

We strongly believe that today's wireless networks will not be able to cope with the coming bandwidth explosion, which will result from increased use of mobile data and video applications. Wireless networks won’t have the bandwidth to handle the same type of unlimited Internet usage that customers are accustomed to getting.

How are network operators going to ensure continued delivery of profitable revenue generating services when those services consume more aggregate bandwidth then the network has available? In our opinion, there are several areas of the network that will have to be upgraded (and possibly augmented by usage restrictions) if mobile data grows anywhere near what Cisco predicts for the 'Zettabyte Era' :

1. Access networks will have to be re-organized to use pico cells, Distributed Antenna Sysems (DAS), or equivalent user segmentation scheme for efficient spectrum re-use within a given metro area.

2. Many networks will still be congested during periods of heavy video and multi-media downloads/ uploads or streaming. In that case, the operator will have to meter service or even restrict/ block certain apps, e.g. AT&T blocks Sling Box video to handsets.

3. The other choice is to upgrade the mobile access network to an OFDM/OFDMA wireless access technology like WiMAX or LTE. . Those networks use spectrum more efficiently and have enhancements like MIMO that further contribute to better utilization.

Problem with this is that it takes a lot of capital to build out a new infrastructure. Further, mobile LTE is a lot farther from being commercially realized then most people expect. That leaves mobile WiMAX as a viable option, but...........???????

4. Both local and metro backhaul segments will need to be upgraded. The current average cell backhaul is equivalent to only 5 x T1's and it must be increased in accordance with the volume and bandwidth of traffic in the access network. Microwave backhaul is the solution for local backhaul and will compete with fiber (where available) for metro and longer distance backhaul.

Any comments, thoughts, feedback would be appreciated.

[Alan J Weissberger]

How will cellular carriers solve the bandwidth bottlenecks in their access networks due to the exponential increase in mobile data traffic from smart phones, notebooks and netbooks?

Richard Wong of Accel Partners provided his prescription at TiEcon2009 in Santa Clara, CA:

1. Cell splitting- reducing the cell radius so there are likely to be fewer users per cell. Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) were being used for this.
2. Move to more spectrum efficient network technologies based on OFDM/OFDMA, e.g. WiMAX or LTE
3. Block certain types of traffic or meter traffic to limit bandwidth hogs
4. Move some of the data traffic to WiFi premises networks (but WiFi radios and interfaces consume a lot of power which decreases hand held device battery life)
5. Use a separate network to carry broadcast video traffic

Author’s Note: At the April 19, 2009 Telecom Council meeting on Wireless Infrastructure, Qualcomm and others suggested that network topology changes could be exploited to improve mobile network capacity. Femto-cells were seen as one way of taking traffic of the cellular network and placing it on the (mostly wired) broadband access network.

[Alan J Weissberger]

We agree with the basic premise of this Wireless Week article:
Mobile broadband growth also demands much lower network costs

"Much of the 3G/4G competition debate is about spectral efficiency (i.e., CDMA versus OFDMA) and headline speeds (i.e., for WiMAX versus EV-DO, versus HSPA, versus LTE). With escalating demand, cost-per-bit as well as network capacity are also crucial. It’s why Clearwire’s Barry West boasts about his 100-120 MHz of cheaply acquired spectrum. It’s also why Verizon Wireless is hurrying to deploy LTE."

Ericsson’s chief technology officer, Håkan Eriksson, foresees a global market of 4 billion mobile data users averaging 20 GBytes per month by 2020. That represents 1,000 times more network traffic than with the world’s 300-minute voice and text-centric average user.

http://www.wirelessweek.com/Article-Mallinson-Bandwidth-Bonanza-II-060109.aspx

[Alan J Weissberger]

Here's are a few articles about AT&T CEO stating that U.S. wireless networks aren't prepared for the surge in mobile data traffic (from smart phones) that has already shown signs of choking their networks.

Smartphones choke networks - AT&T
http://www.totaltele.com/view.aspx?ID=445964&Page=0


AT&T chief: Operators aren't prepared for onslaught of data traffic

http://www.fiercebroadbandwireless.com/story/t-chief-operators-arent-prepared-onslaught-data-traffic/2009-05-28?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal

AT&T CEO Says Wireless Networks Aren't Prepared For Data Traffic -- Frankly, He Should Know
http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20090527/1103125033.shtml